July 5, 2007

Mideast peace treaty possible this month, says expert

Livni, in France, says prisoners to be freed in a matter of days

Syria quietly opens Damascus road to Quneitra, tying up last tactical ends of plan for cross-border terrorist campaign in Golan

Syrian troops enter Lebanon, fortify positions to depth of three kilometres

Ex-Israeli army chief: Two-state solution is dead

Hamas won't take over West Bank, says IDF general

8 Hamas militants killed in Gaza clashes

Al-Qaida’s No. 2 seeks to rally supporters - Al-Zawahri urges unity in jihad, overthrow of ‘corrupt’ Muslim governments

Web Sites Hint at New Bin Laden Tape

Iran ready for more U.S. talks: deputy FM

Israel, France to meet annually to mull common strategic issues

Hamas milks Johnston release for international support

The Road to the White House #4: How to deal with Gaza

Comments
The following comment was made by Joshua Muravchik, a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, regarding the Hamas coup in Gaza:

"Hamas already mostly controlled Gaza. It is hard to imagine what gains it can reap from its "victory." But it is easy to see the losses. Fatah and the government of its leader, Mahmoud Abbas, will be able to restore their strength in the West Bank with the eager assistance of virtually the whole outside world, while Gaza will be shut off and denied outside aid far more strictly than during the past year. Israel will retaliate against shelling with a freer hand. Egypt will tighten its border. And Hamas has in one fell swoop negated its own supreme achievement--namely, winning a majority in Palestine's 2006 parliamentary elections. Until now, Hamas had a powerful argument: how can the West demand democracy and then boycott the winners? But now it is Hamas itself that has destroyed Palestinian democracy by staging an armed coup. Its democratic credentials have gone up in the smoke of its own arson."  http://www.aei.org/publications/filter.all,pubID.26443/pub_detail.asp

I have to agree with Mr. Muravchik, Hamas made a magnificent blunder when they staged a coup against Fatah forcing them from Gaza and centralizing them in the West Bank.  As a result, the leaders of the world have lined up one right after another in condemning Hamas and coming to the aid of Fatah leader and Palestinian Chairman Manhood Abbas.  Many countries are freeing up frozen assets that have long been sidelined due to the presence of Hamas in the Palestinian government.  

Israel has gone so far as to say they will free 250 Fatah terrorists as a gesture of support.  "Israel always keeps its promises," Livni told reporters after a meeting with President Nicolas Sarkozy. "But to pass a message to the Palestinians and show them there is a difference with terrorists ... we are going to free the 250 Fatah prisoners."  http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/878248.html

This couldn't have turned out worse for Hamas.  The world is united against the Hamas coup and overwhelmingly in support of Fatah and Palestinian Chairman Manhood Abbas both politically and financially. They (Hamas) have essentially cut off the financial support of the world, opened themselves up to world condemnation, and made it much easier for Israel to freely attack them without much backlash.  Also, Israel is now a buffer and protector of Fatah in the West Bank.  According to outgoing Israeli commander of Judea and Samaria division, Brigadier-General Yair Golan, Israel has a much greater presence in the West Bank.  "One can't compare between Hamas capabilities in the West Bank and in Gaza," said Golan, adding "it's not that Hamas has given up here, but we have almost unlimited preventive abilities. We operate everywhere."  http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3421753,00.html

Even Hamas' recent release of BBC journalist Alan Johnston has been labeled by some as staged and as a weak attempt at garnishing world support.  But in the end, Hamas was applauded for the part they played in securing his release.  Whether it is enough to legitimize Hamas only time will tell.  In the long run, they will have to reconcile with Fatah and Chairman Abbas if they are to play any part in a future Palestinian government.  It's plain to me that the world has overwhelmingly decided who they will back.  But is it possible that the world has decided a Fatah-Hamas partnership is impossible and decided to cut their losses?

Which leads us to another direction.  This is only a theory but it could possibly come to fruition.  Is it possible that due to the recent developments that the peacemakers will decide that the West Bank only will become the new Palestinian state leaving Gaza (and Hamas) out of the equation altogether?  Certainly, this move would make the most sense since the world has united behind Chairman Abbas.  East Jerusalem would still become the capital of the new state and there would be no split nation thus eliminating future travel complications that would require them to cross Israel.  

According to a report I sent out yesterday hailing the possibility of peace in the Middle East within a month...could this be the new direction the peacemakers have taken that has not only found acceptance in the Quartet but the Arab world as well?

The months ahead are going to be very interesting indeed.