Iran will succeed in stalling West and making agreement while acquiring a nuclear weapon
Israel will find itself diplomatically sidelined and militarily muzzled as the United States pursues a nuclear deal with Iran next year, according to a closed-door wargame at Israel's top strategic think tank.
Not even a warning shot by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu - the simulation featured an undeclared Israeli commando raid on Iran's Arak heavy water plant - would shake U.S. President Barack Obamas's insistence on dialogue.
Israel's arch-foe, meanwhile, will likely keep enriching uranium, perhaps even winning the grudging assent of the West.
"The Iranians came out feeling better than the Americans, as they were simply more determined to stick to their objectives," said Giora Eiland, a former Israeli national security adviser who played Netanyahu in the Nov. 1 wargame at Tel Aviv University's Institute for National Security Studies (INSS).
Reflecting Israel's relative isolation, Eiland and his team spent much of the simulation sequestered from the multilateral talks in the snug, three-storey INSS building.
"Netanyahu" did have hallway encounters with President Barack Obama -- played by Zvi Rafiah, an Israeli ex-diplomat with extensive U.S. ties. But their chats were hasty and hazy.
"Our leverage over the Americans, when we could prise them away from the Iranians and Europeans and others, was limited," Eiland told Reuters. "Pretty much the only card we had to play was the military action card. And that's a faded card."
Assumed to have the region's sole atomic arsenal, Israel has hinted at preemptive air strikes as a last resort for denying Iran the means to make a bomb. But many experts believe Israel would be tactically stymied and loath to cross Washington, which is wary of unleashing a fresh Middle East conflict.
Eiland said the simulation pointed to an eventual U.S.-led
shift to a policy of allowing Iran to continue enriching uranium and of
"containment" should Iran eventually gain nuclear arms.
Israel would have to go along with its U.S. ally, Eiland said: "Israel cannot act alone here. An American-Iranian deal would divest Israel of the ability to attack Iran." Haaretz.com
When it's all said and done, Iran will succeed in striking a deal with the West and complete all phases of creating a nuclear weapon. Whether they will actually assemble it is not important, but they will be nuclear weapons ready.
This will serve two purposes. One, with Iran coming to terms with the West, it will literally tie Israel's hands to wage an attack against the Islamic Republic in the future. Two, by keeping the West in negotiations, this buys Iran much needed time for secretly completing their nuclear ambitions. There's no doubt in my mind that Iran will one day be recognized by the world as a nuclear power just as Israel is. It may remain a secret, but the global intelligence community will know.
The above article just gives you a realistic view of the direction this Middle East standoff may head in 2010.
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